Are many think tanks including the US government predicting a Pakatan Harapan victory in GE15 – the 15th General Election?!
Take a look at the viral claim, and find out what the facts really are!
Claim : Forecasts Predict Pakatan Harapan Victory In GE15?!
On Tuesday, 15 November 2022, this message went viral on WhatsApp, claiming that many think tanks in Malaysia issued forecasts that Pakatan Harapan will win the most seats in GE15!
Electoral Barometer Forecast, (until 6 am, 15 Nov 22)
O2 = BN 42, PN 43, PH 91
Ilham = BN 39, PN 46, PH 87
Merdeka = BN 35, PN 56, PH 98
UMCEDEL = BN 38-40, PN 37-41, PH 88
Iman = BN 41, PN 60, PH 84
Invoke = BN 39, PN 54, PH 105
Penang Institute = BN 35, PN 43, PH 103
UUM = BN 42, PN 49, PH 89
MPN = BN 40, PN 50, PH 90
MIEO = BN 36-40, PN 45-53, PH 92-98
Kemas = BN 36, PN 54, PH 90
Bukit Aman = BN 38, PN 54, PH 92
Ipsos = BN 38, PN 51, PH 87
ISEAS = BN 35, PN 46, PH 96
Oxford Analytica = BN 39, PN 48, PH 92
Indonesia Intel = BN 37, PN 50, PH 94
US Embassy= BN 35, PN 48, PH 94
ASEAN = BN 32, PN 51, PH 108
Truth : Forecasts Do NOT Predict Pakatan Harapan Victory In GE15?!
This is yet another example of FAKE NEWS circulating on WhatsApp and social media, and here are the reasons why…
Fact #1 : Early Voting Only Started Today
First, I should point out that early voting for police and military personnel and their spouses only started today – Tuesday, 15 November, 2022.
Just over 265,000 were allowed to vote early, consisting of 146,737 military personnel and their spouses, and 118,794 police personnel and their spouses.
Fact #2 : Impossible To Use Polls Of Early Voters
As this early voting only occurs in police contingent and district headquarters, as well as military camps, it is impossible for any think tank to conduct exit polls.
Even if they did, this group only makes up 1.2% of Malaysia’s 21 million registered voters, and would not readily represent the voting patterns of the electorate.
Therefore, no think tank – even if they bothered to conduct an extensive exit poll of these early voters – would dare to issue any forecast of the GE15 results.
Fact #3 : No Think Tank Has Issued GE15 Forecasts
Let me just state this – the list of think tanks or research firms predicting a Pakatan Harapan victory in GE15 is false. No think tank has issued such GE15 forecasts.
It is really absurd that people would believe that anyone would issue a forecast before Election Day on 19 November 2022.
Think tanks and research firms like O2 Research Malaysia can conduct polls, but as this recent example shows – they do not predict winners or losers.
Their polls are also based on a relatively small sample that may give us a good idea of the Malaysian population’s voting preferences, but that may not translate into votes – the people polled may end up not voting, or may change their minds later.
Malaysia, O2 Malaysia poll:
PH (Liberal|Centre-left|Regionalist): 39% (-1)
BN (Conservative): 26% (-2)
PN (Conservative|Islamist|Liberal|Regionalist): 17% (-7)
+/- vs. 2018 election
Fieldwork: ~October 2022
Sample size: 1,105
— Asia Elects (@AsiaElects) October 30, 2022
Fact #4 : PDRM Is Apolitical
The Royal Malaysia Police (PDRM) is an apolitical organisation that is part of the Malaysian civil service.
Therefore, it is ridiculous to claim that it would conduct political research, and that its Bukit Aman headquarters would actually issue a forecast that Pakatan Harapan would win the most seats in GE15.
Fact #5 : Foreign Countries Do Not Forecast Malaysian Elections
I should also point out that it is ludicrous to claim that ASEAN, as well as the Indonesian and US governments issued their forecast that Pakatan Harapan will win the 15th General Election in Malaysia.
As a general rule, foreign governments do not issue public forecasts of another country’s politics or elections. That would be considered as foreign interference in a democratic process.
Needless to say – the Indonesian and US governments never issued such GE15 election forecasts.
As for ASEAN, it has a long-standing police of “non-interference in the internal affairs of member nations“. In any case, ASEAN is a pretty toothless and almost inconsequential association.
On top of that – Malaysia is a member of ASEAN. What makes you think the Malaysian government would agree to ASEAN conducting research into its electorate, and actually releasing a forecast that the opposition would win?
Please WATCH OUT about such FAKE NEWS on WhatsApp and social media. They are designed to suppress voter turnout in the 15th General Election.
Regardless of what you may read or see on social media, please take the time and effort to cast your vote. This is not only your right, it is your responsibility as a citizen of Malaysia.
Remember – democracy does not guarantee us a good government. Democracy only guarantees us the right to vote out a bad government!
Happy voting on 19 November 2022!
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Name : Adrian Wong
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Dr. Adrian Wong has been writing about tech and science since 1997, even publishing a book with Prentice Hall called Breaking Through The BIOS Barrier (ISBN 978-0131455368) while in medical school.
He continues to devote countless hours every day writing about tech, medicine and science, in his pursuit of facts in a post-truth world.
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